tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5574479.post3382385766615094901..comments2024-03-29T12:23:31.959+00:00Comments on The IPKat: Patent filing and public debt: here's introducing Schweizer's LawVerónica RodrÃguez Arguijohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05763207846940036921noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5574479.post-21321100860815806802013-04-23T23:27:40.681+01:002013-04-23T23:27:40.681+01:00This is a dangerous curve - take away the two poin...This is a dangerous curve - take away the two points on top left, and the regressions would be unlikely to be statistically significant.<br /><br />Come on guys, we are supposed to be smart to be in the world of I.<br /><br />Putting the doubtful stats aside..dunno. Would need to see more data.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5574479.post-20408430185066686432013-03-19T12:19:40.542+00:002013-03-19T12:19:40.542+00:00Patent filings are a luxury good and correlate ver...Patent filings are a luxury good and correlate very well with GDP/head. There should be a very good correlation with sales of designer shoes, handbags, and champagne. <br /><br />Wait a minute - do sales of designer shoes, handbags, and champagne correlate well with public debt? <br /><br />I'm confused.Meldrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09841440718012449720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5574479.post-80232146810420821812013-03-19T07:31:48.744+00:002013-03-19T07:31:48.744+00:00I don't think the theory travels well. Most c...I don't think the theory travels well. Most countries in the developing world have far lower public debt, and yet don't feature in any patenting stakes. Even insofar as Europe is concerned, I suspect that setting a minimum patenting threshold for consideration conveniently allows a huge number of countries to be ignored. Did the below-threshold countries tend to have higher public debt? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5574479.post-86812003401668844302013-03-18T15:14:51.860+00:002013-03-18T15:14:51.860+00:00as mentioned, there are some outliers. furthermore...as mentioned, there are some outliers. furthermore, it needs to include time: a cross section analysis is not sufficient, in my opinion. Many countries might have quite a constant behaviour independent from time changes in public debt-gdp ratio.<br />And finally, literature has found correlation between number of filings and gdp.<br />however, an interesting new perspectiveFederico Caviggiolihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05715781198246376247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5574479.post-13704474647352447232013-03-18T14:32:38.258+00:002013-03-18T14:32:38.258+00:00As another economist, I am completely with Nicola ...As another economist, I am completely with Nicola here regarding the need for further research. But on first look, this does seem to be a spurious correlation, and also a bit of an artifact of country selection--what would happen if Japan, with its 200% debt/GDP ratio, had been included? When I was teaching in the late 80s, I used to use two examples of "interesting" correlations: (1) the positive relationship between the number of nesting storks and the birth rate in Denmark; and (2) the equally positive correlation between teacher salaries and liquor sales in some US states.Nathan Wajsmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5574479.post-67073334581131331152013-03-18T14:19:20.093+00:002013-03-18T14:19:20.093+00:00I completely agree with Mark that Schweizer's ...I completely agree with Mark that Schweizer's law is interesting and fun.<br /><br />This could be a spurious correlation (i.e. something that suggests a relationship but is actually just coincidence.) Or it could suggest a relationship. Do patent filings reduce national debt? Are countries with high levels of debt also experiencing low levels of patentable innovation?<br /><br />It's a relatively small sample size, so like an economist, I'd call for more research!Nicola Searlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05582267523535551739noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5574479.post-59680435904949089432013-03-18T13:37:57.967+00:002013-03-18T13:37:57.967+00:00If it is Schweizer's law why is der Schweiz an...If it is Schweizer's law why is der Schweiz an outlier??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5574479.post-36727224233607490472013-03-18T13:33:52.052+00:002013-03-18T13:33:52.052+00:00The order of the main sequence from LU to IT is th...The order of the main sequence from LU to IT is the order of the nation's propensity to have things done properly at one end to disorder and just getting on with it at the other. Filing a patent and keeping your budget under control are both orderly things to do. Departures from that it tell us what we know already which is that DE files too many patents and UK not enough. (But what are CH on?)<br /><br />The sequence from CZ to HU shows that they just do not do patents at all - so retry the correlation coefficient without them. Since PL and ES don't file for patents it is no surprise that they don't want to play in the EU patent. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5574479.post-1071068174225050892013-03-18T13:13:05.958+00:002013-03-18T13:13:05.958+00:001) Correlation is not causation.
2) That's a ...1) Correlation is not causation.<br /><br />2) That's a pretty poor best fit line. Cut out LU and CH as anomalous outliers, and there's practically no correlation.<br /><br />3) On the whole, a very nice example of why one should be cautious of regression analysis.<br /><br />(oblig. XKCD: <a href="http://xkcd.com/552/" rel="nofollow">http://xkcd.com/552/</a>)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5574479.post-30521892341413502392013-03-18T12:48:58.169+00:002013-03-18T12:48:58.169+00:00Correlation is indeed not causation, but even in c...Correlation is indeed not causation, but even in case there would be a causation, one could ever wonder which is the cause and which is the consequence...<br />This triggers interesting considerations when you think about it, but I honestly can hardly draw any conclusion out of it !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com